Models and people and....

[nwhiker]

This is not going to end well, people. What that image doesn't show is what happens when we get to "See, we overreacted, let's all party at the beach next weekend and hit the mall!"

We're getting a bit more testing online here in WA state, so our numbers don't look so good, with more cases detected, but the percentage of positives is looking better.

Overall, I'm very concerned, especially now that it looks like Trump has decided that this is all over, he's going to disband his task force etc. His model shows that deaths are going to pretty much stop, with a fall-off-the-cliff like curve by mid-May, so eh, we can all go home.

Anyhow, I thought this was a decent take on models and what is going on with the oft-cited IHME model.

Giving Models and Modelers a Bad Name.

This is one of the sites I look at a lot... I wish they had the way to change the scales, and a smaller key near to the curves to help remember which color is which prediction. Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

I really wish high schools offered a class in all sorts of stuff like this, basic science and economics that we need for real life. Understanding the concept of exponential growth or compound interest should not just be for the kids who take AP Calc or AP Stats or whatever. This can be presented in a way that is accessible to most kids, and everyone having that basic level of literacy would serve us well.

I mean, Linnea doesn't always get things at the first try... But at the beginning on this there was a graph circulating that showed 1-2-4-8-16-32... and then showed the impact of 1 only infecting 1 person rather, or even one of the the 4 deciding to self isolate and not infecting anyone. She got it. Quickly.

Just some random thoughts on the epidemic, written in part because I am so freaking angry that all the morons who are going out are throwing away a good part of all the staying-at-home we've all be doing. Ugh.